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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a much more significant shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change approaching, rolling round the bend, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.