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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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