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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.